Australian wool production steady in 2010/11

Shorn wool production in Australia is expected to be at around the same level as in 2009/10, in spite of lower sheep numbers at the start of the season, according to the latest forecasts from the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee released today. Good seasonal conditions in most parts of eastern Australia are expected to bring higher fleece weights which will offset the lower sheep numbers nationally as well as the poor seasonal conditions in Western Australia.

The Committee’s second forecast for the 2010/11 season predicts that shorn wool production in Australia will be at 340 mkg greasy, virtually the same as its estimate of 343 mkg greasy for the 2009/10 season.

“Seasonal conditions are reported to be good to very good throughout New South Wales and many parts of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. However, it has been very dry in Western Australia,”Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson, said.“As a result, higher fleece weights are expected in 2010/11 but not by as much as predicted in April.”

The Committee predicts that average fleece weights will rise in 2010/11 by around 3%. In its first forecast for 2010/11 in April, the Committee predicted a 5% lift in average fleece weights.“The Committee has also estimated that the number of lambs marked in 2009/10 was around 30.7 million head. This is lower than its preliminary estimate in April. Sheep numbers at the start of the 2010/11 season will therefore be around 70 million head, down from 72.7 million head a year ago and also lower than the 71 million head it estimated in April,”Mr Pattinson continued.

The Committee’s estimate of opening numbers is in line with estimates from Meat and Livestock Australia and ABARE. The reduced estimate of opening sheep and thus sheep shorn numbers means that the Committee’s latest forecast of 340 mkg greasy is lower than its first forecast in April of 350 mkg greasy.“Despite this minor update, there continues to be many signs that the long, steady decline in sheep numbers in Australia is coming to an end. Sheep and lamb slaughterings were down by over 12% in 2009/10 and live exports were down by 25%. As well, there are reports that lamb marking percentages will be higher this spring in many states. The combination of lower slaughterings and better lamb markings will help turn the decline in sheep numbers around, although it will not have a significant impact on wool production this season,”Mr Pattinson continued.“The Committee also predicts that the better seasonal conditions in several states and an increased focus on sheep for both meat and wool will likely result in a broadening of the clip,”Mr Pattinson said.

The national Committee drew on advice from the six state committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from state departments of agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.