August Nylon Filament Yarn Market Report

I.MarketReview

In Aug, raw materials generally maintained a good performance and dragged nylon filament yarn market up consequently. On one hand, the majority of NFY producers pointed out that sales recovered apparently with a sales ratio averagely at about 100%. So inventory was consumed and released producers from inventory pressure. On the other hand, nylon filament yarn prices moved up successively. The CCF Price of POY86Dtex, semi‐dull FDY70D and semi‐dull DTY70D climbed up by 1100, 1400 and 800 respectively to 26000, 27200 and 28800yuan/mt.

1. POY
POY producers performed actively to push prices up and the trading prices of higher‐grade POY86Dtex/24F moved up from 25000‐25500 to 26000‐26600yuan/mt, lower‐grade from 24300 up to 25500yuan/mt. POY producers focused consuming stocks in Aug, especially when O/R was cut down by 20% under power saving policy. Big plants barely purchases feedstock but small plants purchased raw materials moderately for a cover. As we can see from the chart, the price trend of POY basically kept parallel to the price trend of high speed spinning chips. Moreover the price spread between POY and HS chips remained quite reasonable. Based on enough feedstock for about more than a month, big plants maintained a stable operation while the profits of small plants were squeezed.

2. FDY
FDY prices also moved up. FDY saw the biggest decrease in Jul, as a result, FDY enjoyed the biggest increase in Aug. The trading prices of semi‐dull FDY70D/24F moved up from 25700‐26000yuan/mt to 27200‐27500yuan/mt. As we can see from the chart, FDY saw a slightly bigger increase spread than chips, therefore, producers enjoyed a smoother operating status. However, producers expressed worries due to rising costs and declining O/R.

3. DTY
Comparing to the big ups and downs of FDY, DTY led a steady way relatively in recent two months. Meanwhile, DTY producers enjoyed better sales and profits than FDY producers. The trading prices of higher‐grade semi‐dull DTY70D/24F moved up from 28500yuan/mt to 29500yuan/mt. DTY price trend also kept parallel to the price trend of HS chips with a reasonable price spread. Big plants witnessed a smoother operation than small plants on ample feedstock inventory.

Operating rate
In Aug, O/R in NFY plants kept declining under power ration, generally down by about 20%. Moreover, Jiangsu began to implement power ration as well. The CCF NFY O/R dropped down from 76.8% to 65%. Free from power ration, plants in Fujian/Guangdong are still running at full capacity.

Inventory
NFY inventory index kept a downtrend in Aug. In the earlier half of the month, the decreasing speed was faster, which could attributed to that rising prices spurred downstream plants to purchase feedstock actively. Though later downstream plants performed cautious, power ration dragged NFY O/R down and the sales ratio still could reach 100% or even above.

II. Import & export
Nylon fiber imports totaled 25.7kt, up by 8.29% month on month but down 9.65% year on year; the exports amounted to 21.7kt, up 0.1% month on month and 10.31% year on year.

Major nylon 6 yarns (under H.S. code 54024510 and 54023111) imports totaled 9.39kt, up by 13.21% month on month but down 14.43% year on year; the exports amounted to 3.65kt, up by 0.79% month on month and 38.75% year on year.

Major nylon 66 yarns (under H.S. code 54023112 and 54024520) imports totaled 1.73kt, up by 3.57% month on month and 38.06% year on year; the exports amounted to 333 tons, down by 2.78% month on month but up 0.81% year on year.

Nylon 6 cord fabric imports totaled 56 tons, down by 23.71% month on month and 45.95% year on year; the exports amounted to 5.57kt, down by 13.69% month on month and 17.41% year on year.

III. Outlook
1. Raw materials
Cost is still the key factor of nylon filament yarn market outlook. Sep CPL contract offers for offshore cargos in China mainland and Taiwan are pegged at $2600/mt, slightly up from Aug offers. Nylon 6 chip market maintains an upward movement. In Sep, raw materials may keep moving up but the increase should be restricted to a small range.

2. Demand
According to the recent trading reports, end‐user demand did not recover significantly. But as Sep and Oct are the regularly peak seasons for nylon industry, end‐user demand is expected to warm up later.

3. Demand
To sum up, nylon 6 filament yarn market will be subject to the overall uptrend led by firm raw materials. Cost ranked the major role for NFY market outlook in the short term. As for long‐ erm market tendency, downstream demand should be paid extra concerns.

4. Power ration impact.
In Aug, O/R in NFY plants declined by more than 20% to prevailingly about 50%. Late Aug, Jiangsu province began to carry out power ration measures as well and the impact is gradually strengthening. If the power ration lasts for long term and implemented strictly, along with the lowing product inventory, the supply on Jiangsu/Zhejiang market will be influenced significantly, which might push NFY prices up to some extent. However, as downstream plants were also under power restriction, downstream demand shrank correspondingly. The performance of end‐user demand on Fujian and Guangdong markets should be paid extra concerns. At present, free from power ration impact, NFY plants in Fujian and Guangdong are mainly running at full capacity so NFY supply is ample. To some extent, the market tendency will depend on the implementation of power ration and end‐user demand in Fujian/Guangdong as well.

To sum up, based on the mixed influence of rising costs, expectation of recovering demand and power ration impact, NFY producers will still push prices up actively, but the upward movement would be limited.