2010/11 China Cotton Linter Supply Estimation
2010/11 cotton season has begun and sporadic goods have arrived in some regions. As for the production for new cotton season, great divergences spread among different sources.
2010/11 China Cotton Production Estimation
The above three authorities gave different figures for cotton production estimation and we take the estimation of 7080kt. In China this year, cotton output in Yangtze River Basin reduced apparently affected by flood, while in Shandong and Hebei, the production increased. Xinjiang as the major planting area saw divergences in production, so we temporarily took the figure of the previous year.
With the improvement of biological technology, lint percentage keeps rising in recent years. The figure in Xinjiang has reached 38-40% and that in Shandong is pegged at 37-39%. Though cotton production increases somehow, the growth of cottonseed output is minimal. Calculated by the lint percentage of 38%, if cotton output is 7080kt in 2010/11, cottonseed production is about 11550kt. Calculated by delinting ratio of 10.5%, China cotton linter output in 2010/11 is around 1210kt.
Cotton output in US and India hikes as well as global cotton production. Coupled with high cotton linter price in China, the volume of imported cotton linter in new season is expected to reach as high as more than 250kt, even higher than 300kt.
Consequently, cotton linter supply in 2010/11 may reach nearly 1500kt.
| Authority | 2009/2010 (10kt) | 2010/2011 (10kt) |
| USDA | 686 | 718 |
| ICAC | 675 | 708 |
| CCA | 680 | 696 |
The above three authorities gave different figures for cotton production estimation and we take the estimation of 7080kt. In China this year, cotton output in Yangtze River Basin reduced apparently affected by flood, while in Shandong and Hebei, the production increased. Xinjiang as the major planting area saw divergences in production, so we temporarily took the figure of the previous year.
With the improvement of biological technology, lint percentage keeps rising in recent years. The figure in Xinjiang has reached 38-40% and that in Shandong is pegged at 37-39%. Though cotton production increases somehow, the growth of cottonseed output is minimal. Calculated by the lint percentage of 38%, if cotton output is 7080kt in 2010/11, cottonseed production is about 11550kt. Calculated by delinting ratio of 10.5%, China cotton linter output in 2010/11 is around 1210kt.
Cotton output in US and India hikes as well as global cotton production. Coupled with high cotton linter price in China, the volume of imported cotton linter in new season is expected to reach as high as more than 250kt, even higher than 300kt.
Consequently, cotton linter supply in 2010/11 may reach nearly 1500kt.
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