Cotton planting expected to increase about 45% in MY 2011

USDA's Global Agriculture Information Network (GAIN) released Turkey Cotton Products Update May 2011 wiht Assessments of Commodity and Trade Issues.

The MY 2011 Turkish cotton crop area and production are now estimated about 450,000 hectares and 630,000 MT (2.9 million bales). Record high world cotton prices caused farmers to plant cotton but continued rains during the planting season delayed planting, which will cause a drop in yields. MY 2010 total consumption is expected to decline to 1.2 MMT (5.5 million bales), however, as a result of high prices. Year-end imports are estimated to remain at about 700,000 MT (3.2 Million bales). Imports during the first eight months of MY 2010 reached 521,000 MT (2.4 million bales), of which U.S. cotton constituted more than seventy percent.

Production

Country wide continuous rains during pril and first half of May had prevented cotton planting. Farmers were able to plant during the second half of May, about a month later than usual. Late planting will cause many problems in picking, ginning and quality since cotton will be vulnerable to rains in the fall. MY 2011 cotton area and production are now estimated to be about 450,000 hectares and 630,000 MT (2.98 million bales). It is reported that attractive world prices persuaded farmers not to plant winter grains such as wheat and corn in cotton growing areas, hence domestic cotton planting is expected to increase about forty-five percent in MY 2011.

Record world cotton prices persuaded farmers to plant cotton despite the uncertainty about the cotton production bonus for the crop year. GOT announced crop production bonuses for other crops under the program about two months ago with the exception of seed cotton. Following repeated requests from farm groups, the Agricultural Minister unofficially released last weekend that the production bonus for seed cotton will be 0.42 per kilogram, the same as last year.

Consumption

MY 2010 domestic cotton consumption is now estimated to be about 1.20 MMT (5.5 million bales). Record high world cotton prices increased the cost of textile production and caused a decline in orders. It is reported that reduced orders have caused exports to decline, particularly from Southern European countries due to the economic slowdown and Middle Eastern countries due to political turmoil. As export demand fell, the sudden decline in cotton prices caused some mills to get caught with high cost raw material stocks, making it harder to compete with low cost imports.

Additionally, a decree was announced in January which will increase import duties for textile and garment imports to 20 and 30 percent, respectively, starting on July 21, 2011. Even though the decree is expected to increase utilization of locally produced material in textiles, high local prices persuaded local garment producers to rush to import raw materials from low cost countries beforeJuly 21. Accordingly, while imports of textiles and garments increased in recent months local mills are reported to have received very low orders in the last two months and some are reported to be considering temporary closures. High cotton yarn prices are also reported to have caused an increase in the usage of manmade fibers by the Turkish textile industry.

Even though Turkish textile and garment exports still show 20 and 10 percent increases respectively, sources indicate that these increases are due to delivery of old orders and export growth soon will stop. It is also reported that some mills who ordered new machinery to increase capacity are trying to postpone their purchases.

Mills are hoping for improvement in the overall economic situation in domestic and international markets and also the stabilization of world cotton prices with the new crop, to be able to work competitively again.

Trade

Turkey imported 512,310 MT (2.4 Million bales) of cotton during first eight months of MY 2010, of which 372,000 MT (1.7 Million bales) or seventy-one percent was U.S. cotton. Greece, the CIS countries, Brazil and India were the other suppliers to Turkey. Total year end imports are expected to remain at about 700,000 MT due to a decline in domestic consumption. GSM-102 credit guarantee program continues to play an important role in U.S. cotton sales to Turkey. During FY 2011 Turkish cotton importers bought US$ 235 million worth of U.S. cotton under the program, which represents about fifty-seven percent of total usage as of May 25, 2011.

Turkish cotton exports during the same period were about 5,880 MT (27,000 bales), of which about 5,357 MT (24,590 bales) went to Turkish free trade zones. Some of the cotton in these zones may be imported back into the country. Turkey also exported about 16,130 MT of cotton for medical use during the same period.