The forecast of textile industry operation situation in 2012

Since 2011, China's textile industry was actively responding to several negative factors influence, which including the world economic slowdown, RMB appreciation, the price of raw materials substantially fluctuate such as cotton, and the costs of labor and energy etc. accelerating transformation of development mode, continuously improve science and technology, management and marketing level, annual production, exports and profits to realize smooth growth, but the growth rate fell from month to month, operation pressure of the textile industry increase, some small and medium-sized textile enterprise management difficulties.

 

 

 (1) Production maintains steady growth; the yield of main product fell back

From January to November, the scale above textile enterprise which the industrial added value increases 10.5% year-on-year, the speed growth increases 0.6% compared with the first half of the year, the industrial added value of the textile industry accounts the national industrial added value for 5.7%, increasing 0.1% compared with the first half of the year. The rate of production and marketing was 97.7%, increasing 0.1% compared with the first half of the year. From January to November, China’s yarn production was 26.32 million tons, up 12.4%, the speed growth increased 1.2% compared with the first half of the year; the production of fabric was 56.8 billion meters, up 13.2%, the speed growth drop 2.2% compared with the first half of the year; chemical fiber production was 30.74 million tons, up 14.9%, the speed growth drop 0.4% with the first half of the year; garment production was 23 billion pieces, up 8.5%, the speed growth drop 4% compared with the first half of the year.

 

 (2) Investment maintains a fast growth, and to further optimized of regional structure

 

From January to November, China’s textile enterprise which the project total investment of above 5 million Yuan is 610.2 billion Yuan, up 34.7% year on year; the number of new construction project increases 1.78%. Among them, the investment of cotton industry is 150.3 billion Yuan, up 36.8%; the investment of chemical fiber industry is 66.5 billion Yuan, up 45.8%; the investment of garment industry is 185.2 billion Yuan, increasing 40.0%.

 

From January to November, the actual completed investment of textile industry is 346.4 billion Yuan in Eastern Region, up 23.0%; The central region which the actual completed investment of textile industry is 186.9 billion Yuan, up 55.7%r; The Western Region which actual completed investment of textile industry is 49.6 billion Yuan, up 51.7%; The Northeast Three Provinces which the actual completed investment of textile industry is 27.2 billion Yuan, increasing 47.0% year on year. The central and western, northeast region that the total investment accounts the national for 43.2%, increasing 2.1% compared with the first half of the year.

 

 (3) Export is steady growth, and the growth fall sharply in the fourth quarter

 

From January to November, the textile exports 86.4 billion U.S. dollars, up 24.0%, and the speed growth drops 4.8% compared with the first half of the year, compared to last year, fell 5.6%; garment exports 139.8 billion U.S. dollars, up 19.5%, the speed growth drop 4.2% compared with the first half of the year, compared to last year, fell 1.7%. Among them, the amount of textile export increased 18.4% in October, and the amount of garment export increased 6.0%; the amount of textile export increased 13.6% in November, and up 3.5% year on year; between October and November, the growth of export amount lower than the previous levels.

 

(4) Economic benefits is steady growth, the losses of the enterprise faster increase

 

From January to November, the textile industry's main business income is 4.8072 trillion Yuan, up 27.4%, the speed growth drop 3.1% compared with the first half of the year, compared to the national industry, low 0.8%. Total profit is 246.6 billion Yuan, up 26.6%, the speed growth drop 14.7% compared with the first half of the year, compared to the national industry, high 2.2%. Textile industry that losses of the enterprise increases 28.7% year on year, the speed growth improves 30.4% compared with the first half of the year, compared to the national industry, high 11.5%. The loss total amount of the losses of the enterprise grew 75.9%, increased by 69.8% in the first half of the year, compared to the national industry, high 8.5%.

 

 

(1) The gap of cotton price is greater at home and abroad

 

Nearly three months, affected by the temporary collection, the domestic cotton price keeps 19,000-19,800 Yuan/ton. The domestic standard cotton price quoted 19,173 Yuan/ton on December 29^th. While the import cotton that the sliding duties is 17,164 Yuan/ton on December 27, lower 2,009 Yuan/ton than the domestic cotton price. New York futures that the delivery price is 91.63 cents per pound (sliding tax price is 15,341 Yuan/ton), lower 3,832 Yuan/ton than the current domestic cotton price. According to Indian textile department data, in November, the average of India domestic cotton price is 94 rupees/kg, exchange RMB is 12,000 Yuan/tons. The gap of cotton price is greater at home and abroad, making China's textile international competitiveness greater influence.

 

(2) The international economic recovery slow, the demand weakens

 

Since 2011, the world economic growth slowed, international trade growth fell back, all kinds of risks are significantly increased, and the world economic recovery instability and uncertainty ascend. From January to October, the United States that the quantity of import cotton products fell 12.27% from the global, the speed growth fell 4.05% compared with the first half of the year, among them, the numbers of import cotton from China fell 17.56%, the speed growth fell 2.4% compared with the first half of the year.

 

(3) The funding issues are still outstanding

 

Financing difficulties, financing expensive are more outstanding in the textile industry. Textile enterprise loan interest common rise, from January to October, the textile enterprise interest expenses increases 37.2% year-on-year, the fund tension led to the enterprise inventory obvious, and product prices fell.

 

(4) Enterprise technology progress can't adapt to the external changing situation

 

At present, the development mode of endogenous driver did not become the industry development mainstream, most of the enterprise development mainly still relies on quantity win, depending on cost competition, technological progress and development model is not adapt to changes in the external environment.

 

 

(1)   Export still can keep a certain growth

 

Since 2011, the world economic growth slowed, international trade growth fell back, and all kinds of risks are significantly increased. Looking to next year, the world economic situation will still very serious and complex in general, the world economic recovery of uncertainty rises, international trade will keep growth, but a faster growth facing with the great pressure. Although in recent years, the domestic labor costs and resources environment costs continue to increase, but China's textile industry that the industry chain is complete, advanced technology level, and remains the advantage of international competition. It is expected that the export growth of textile and garment will not lower than the international trade growth in 2012.

 

(2)   The growth of domestic demand to the textile support function is stronger

The central economic work conference determine to total fundamental key which the economic development makes progress while ensuring stability next year, and emphasized the expansion of domestic demand, developed the entity economy, accelerated the reform and innovation, security and the improvement of people's life and four aspects of the key tasks. Along with the country's reform and the deepening of the macroeconomic regulation and control work, the domestic economy will remain stable growth, and the domestic textile & garment consumption will continue to keep growing, which the growth is expected to flat with 2011.

 

(3) Industry operation pressures continue to increase