USDA: World cotton output forecast

India and Pakistan are forecast to consume 21.5 million bales and 11.3 million bales in 2012/13, an increase of 7 percent and 11 percent, respectively, from the previous year.  While 2012/13 mill use is expected to remain flat in Turkey, the United States is expected to increase consumption by 3 percent to 3.4 million bales. 

The weak global mill use demand and a relatively higher crop are expected to result in record 2012/13 ending stocks.  World ending stocks are forecast at 76.5 million bales, up 9.5 percent from a year ago.  China’s ending stocks are forecast at 35.5million bales, up 16 percent from a year earlier, accounting for 46 percent of global stocks. 

Australia is forecast to carry a record 3.5 million bales in ending stocks, up 5 percent from a year ago.  Ending stocks in India and Pakistan are forecast at 8.2 million bales and 3.4 million bales, respectively, an increase of 6.5 percent and 10.6 percent from the previous year.

India’s share will be 11 percent of global ending stocks, while Pakistan’ share will be 4 percent.  The United States is expected to carry 5.3 million bales in ending stocks, up 58 percent from a year earlier.  The expected rise in global ending stocks has put a downward pressure on world cotton prices.

Global Cotton Trade Declines in 2012/13

Global 2012/13 cotton trade is forecast at 36.6 million bales, up 800, 000 bales from last month.  Nonetheless, world trade is expected to decline 9 percent from a year ago.  The decrease in global cotton trade is a reflection of weak expected imports by China, where 2012/13 imports are projected to decline 51 percent from last season’s record to 12.0 million bales.  Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.6 million bales and 2.2 million bales in 2012/13, respectively, an increase of 14 percent and 9 percent from the previous year.  Imports by Pakistan and Turkey are forecast to increase 140 percent and 26 percent, respectively, to 2.4 million bales and 3.0 million bales.

Australia and Brazil are forecast to export 4.2 million bales and 4.0 million bales in 2012/13, respectively, down 8 percent and 17 percent from a year earlier.  India is projected to export 3.5 million bales, down 200,000 bales from last month, but up 67 percent from the previous year.  Revisions in India’s 2010/11 and 2011/12 balance sheets reflect recent updates by the nation’s Cotton Advisory Board.