China Cotton Commercial Stock Monthly Report – November, 2012

Monitored by: CCA Cotton Warehousing and Logistics Branch
Monitored Subjects: 124 cotton warehouses in 17 Provinces or municipalities

By 30th November, the temporary reserve of 2012/13 season totaled 3.48 million ton, more than the final volume of last season. Supported by reserve, spot price continued to increase moderately. At the same time the textiles, though with limited raw material inventory were unwilling to buy for risk concerns. Big-bale ginners were active to sell to reserve, leaving the market quite sluggish. As a result, currently commercial stock of the week reduced to the lowest in 3 years, much lower than the same timeframe last year, and mainly carryover of last season.

According to statistics of 124 member warehouses of CCA warehousing and logistics branch, by the end of November, the commercial carryover stock was 315,000 ton, comprising by 249,000 ton in inland and 66,000 ton in Xinjiang, and the volume was 113,000 ton less over the month, and 488,000 ton less than last November. There are 196,000 ton of Xinjiang cotton, 71,000 ton of inland cotton and 48,000 ton of import cotton. Extrapolation suggests the national carryover commercial stock totaled 380,000 ton, 133,000 ton less than last month. During the month, commercial cotton of 54,000 ton was dispatched from 22 Xinjiang transfer stations via railway to inland, 60,000 ton less over the month, and 106,000 ton less than last November.

1. Commercial carryover stock in Inland
By the end of November, the commercial stocks in 102 inland warehouses totaled 249,000 ton, 95,000 ton less over the month, while 15,000 ton more than last November. In inland stocks, there are 131,000 ton of Xinjiang cotton, 71,000 ton of inland cotton and 47,000 ton of import cotton.
As for the distribution of inland stocks, Shandong and Jiangsu provinces still have the largest shares, about more than half of the national total, then followed by Henan, Hebei and Hubei provinces. Among these, Shandong has 25%, 4% more over the month, Jiangsu decreased by 13% over the month to 20%. Henan was 8%, 3% down over the month; Hubei was 18%, 8% up over the month; Hebei was 9%, 4% up over the month; Anhui was 4%, 1% up and Hunan was 1%, unchanged.

2. Xinjiang commercial carryover stocks
By the end of November, the carryover stock in 22 warehouses in Xinjiang was66,000 ton, 18,000 ton less over the month, while 503,000 ton less Y/Y. Among these, 64,000 ton was Xinjiang cotton and 2,000 ton import cotton. In November, commercial cotton transported via railway was 54,000 ton, 6,000 ton less over the month, while 106,000 ton less than last November. Calculation based on this was 13,000 ton Xinjiang cotton still on the way by the end of November.